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MBS RECAP: Well? Get On With It!

October 10, 2017
by admin

“Well? Get on with it!”

That about sums up what the average bond market watcher was thinking at the end of September–and possibly again after today’s trading session. At the end of September, a run toward higher yields resumed abruptly just after looking like it had calmed down. The tacit implication was that the last major highs (roughly 2.40-2.42% in terms of 10yr yields) would soon be challenged.

Indeed, rates crested 2.40% just before the Columbus Day weekend. Actually, they hit the highs earlier in the day and then rallied back impressively in the afternoon. Now this week, they’ve avoided committing to either theme (the scary moves higher or the comforting moves lower). Yields have remained WELL-inside last week’s range, and today’s auction and Fed Minutes did nothing to change that. In fact, volatility continues to die down from last Friday.

2017-10-11 close

Today’s Treasury auctions (3yr and 10yr) were generally well-received, but traders didn’t react in any noticeable way.

The Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting weren’t that interesting and certainly didn’t bring any significant new info to light. Some analysts suggest they were more bond-friendly than expected, but I read them as accurately reflecting the speeches we’ve gotten from Fed members over the past few weeks. In any event, plans for rate hikes and inflation frustration haven’t changed.

If anything, this leaves the week’s focus squarely on the inflation data over the next 2 days. That’s the best hope for a new trading theme to emerge.

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