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MBS RECAP: No Drama From CPI; Bring On The Fed

June 11, 2018
by admin

Today turned out to be a dud, thanks to a completely uneventful CPI reading as well as a right-down-the-middle 30yr bond auction. Neither of these events were necessarily destined to shake things up, but CPI certain COULD have (if it fell far from forecast).

When it comes to tomorrow’s Fed events (which include updated forecasts and a Powell Press Conference), we can assume that there are enough trading ideas hinging on the event that it will be impossible to avoid a volatile reaction. The least volatile outcome would probably be a knee-jerk that ends up leaving bonds in relatively unchanged territory. If that ends up happening, the ECB will be out on Thursday morning to see about getting some momentum going. Either way, the moral of the story is that we’ve reached this week’s big volatility potential as of 2pm tomorrow.

As a point of order, keep in mind that we already know the Fed will hike rates. The hike is priced-in. We don’t yet know how the Fed’s rate hike outlook will evolve, or how Fed Chair Powell may answer questions at the press conference that follows the announcement. Those are the market movers, in addition, perhaps, to any notable changes in the verbiage. If I had to rank them, I’d put the rate hike outlook at the top of the pile (that comes out at 2pm)

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