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MBS RECAP: Nice Pre-NFP Lead-Off For Bond Markets

May 5, 2016
by admin
  • Heavy corporate bond issuance added pressure in AM
  • After that, no more sellers left in bond markets
  • 10yr yields pulled a 6bp reversal to end 3.3bps lower
  • Fannie 3.0s ended 6 ticks higher at 102-26

Relative to yesterday, neither stocks nor oil made any new intraday lows, so we can’t lean on those old explanations too much. European bond markets strengthened, but not at an especially strong pace relative to Treasuries. In fact, it wasn’t until European bond markets closed that Treasuries finally kicked into higher gear in terms of buying demand.

In the bigger picture, bonds have simply been on a mission to move gradually toward lower rates ever since the last FOMC Announcement in late April. That may have been in question until yesterday, and now it’s been confirmed by today’s organic rally. For what it’s worth, it never looked to be in much doubt according to shorter-term Treasuries, which more closely follow Fed rate hike expectations.

Bottom line, today was just another day in that process of repricing the Fed outlook, and it was a bit more active thanks to pre-NFP hustle and bustle. MBS underperformed, as they tend to do when Treasuries are making bigger moves. Tomorrow’s NFP will be interesting, if for no other reason than bond markets are so close to the lower edge of the recent rate range.

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