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MBS RECAP: Mostly an Aftershock For Yesterday’s Bond Rout

May 16, 2018
by admin

If you happened to be out of the office yesterday, 10yr yields finally broke out of their most recent consolidation pattern and moved quickly to the highest levels in just under 7 years. Big spikes can sometimes be isolated. That means today could have seen a decent move back in the other direction. For a few fleeting moments this morning, that possibility remained on the table, but by mid-morning, it was gone.

Bonds taunted optimists one more time with a bounce right at yesterday’s high yields. In other words, it looked like we had a chance to form a 2-day double top at 3.0945%. But the afternoon hours crushed that little dream with a linear move up to 3.1038% by the close.

Specific motivations were in short supply. One of the only cogent arguments in the bond trading community was that Fed comments played a role. Specifically, new Fed member Raphael Bostic was on the record as saying it was “his job” to make sure the yield curve doesn’t invert. That’s a pretty clear indication that the Fed needs longer term rates to go higher (because Bostic also plans on 6 rate hikes between 2018 and 2019).

Indeed, some of the pressure on yields followed those comments, but the start of the NYSE session could also explain the move. Either way, it was an uncommonly stark assessment from a Fed voter, and one that’s worth keeping in mind as we see how their policy path unfolds.

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