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MBS RECAP: Bonds Calmly Trading Near Best Levels

February 8, 2019
by admin

The bond market is exuding a sort of confidence we’ve not seen in a long time. I’m not saying that because outright rate levels are lower than they’ve been in more than a year. Rather, I’m saying it because bonds have been content to hold inside a very narrow range near those lows.

As 2019 has progressed, we’ve seen less and less evidence of yields being “spooked” either by unfriendly news or simply by the need to undergo a correction after hitting a new low. It would seem traders have taken the ECB, EU, Fed, etc. at their words with respect to a global growth slowdown and placing the burden of proof on stronger economic data or friendly fiscal developments.

If the data doesn’t impress and if fiscal missteps can’t be avoided, it’s not clear what would prevent rates from continuing lower, or at least continuing to avoid moving higher in too threatening a way.

As for today specifically, there really wasn’t much to write home about. Treasuries picked up some ground with Europe early in the day and then went sideways despite a bounce back in the stock market. MBS didn’t fare quite as well by comparison, but nonetheless picked up an eighth of a point.

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