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MBS RECAP: Bonds Abruptly Give Back Post-Election Gains

November 7, 2018
by admin

Those who expected the election to matter to bond markets got their way overnight. Those who expected elections to be inconsequential got their way by the end of the day. During the overnight session, there was clear correlation between the odds of Democratic control of the House and strength in bond markets. When the results were more or less official, rates fell to their best levels of the week. Notably, however, they avoided breaking below the 3.18% technical level.

Bond market strength remained in play during the morning hours. Indeed, it may have remained in play all day had it not been for a terrible reception for today’s 30yr Treasury auction as well as a hefty slate of corporate debt issuance.

By the end of the day, Treasuries had edged just barely back into negative territory although MBS were able to hold on to a token victory (just barely).

Tomorrow brings the Fed Announcement. No rate hike is expected. No fireworks are expected. But verbiage changes always run some risk of causing volatility. Risks are potentially elevated for bonds simply because they’re so close to multi-year highs.

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