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MBS Day Ahead: Ceilings to Watch if Weakness Continues

June 11, 2018
by admin

Bonds are starting the day in a slightly weaker stance yet again. While we managed to come back from a weaker start yesterday, it’s worth checking in with the important defensive ceilings. If this week continues to be unfriendly, these ceilings would be like mile markers from bad to worse.

2018-6-12 open3

Moving over 3.035 would imply another potential showdown with long-term highs, but we’ll cross that bridge if we come to it. On the positive side, there are several cases to be made for the 3 floors, but 2.945 has seen the most activity (recently and in April/May). At the risk of stating the obvious, the more of those floors we break, the better bonds are doing. Vice versa with the ceilings.

With this morning’s CPI data not having an impact on markets and this afternoon’s 30yr bond auction typically not being a huge market mover, the likelihood of a reaction to the Fed tomorrow or the ECB on Thursday is that much stronger. Bonds would be conveying a profound sense of indecision if they don’t challenge either the ceilings or the floors before the week is over.

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